This is a sample report using data from A7Model (778 NFL ATS bets, 2008–2025)
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Sign Up FreeThis period produced +151.53 units on 778 settled bets at 16.5% ROI. Cumulative edge of 8.2 percentage points above breakeven is confirmed (p-value < 0.001) over 778 bets. Conviction sizing is adding value — oversized bets outperform standard bets by 14.8 percentage points. Tier performance is observational and subject to live validation.
Aggregate walk-forward out-of-sample results across 18 NFL seasons (2008–2025).
Average bets per season: ~43.
Under a breakeven (-110) null hypothesis, p < 0.001.
Your 60.5% win rate over 778 bets at -110 juice represents 8.2 percentage points above breakeven.
Assumes independent bet outcomes and no structural data leakage.
No statistically significant performance difference between halves (p = 0.731).
Minimum observed rolling 100-bet WR: 55.0%. 0 of 68 windows were at or below breakeven.
No erosion zones detected. Betting activity is concentrated in a single market segment.
No significant leaks detected in your betting history.
Base unit = 1u. 70% of bets sized within ±20% of base unit. 30% allocated above base unit.
Conviction sizing is adding value — oversized bets outperform standard bets by 14.8 percentage points. Tier performance is observational and subject to live validation.
| Month | ROI | WR | Volume | Avg stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | 8.0% | 58.0% | 45 | 1.18u |
| 2024-09 | 12.0% | 59.0% | 52 | 1.20u |
| 2024-10 | 14.0% | 60.0% | 48 | 1.22u |
| 2024-11 | 16.0% | 61.0% | 55 | 1.18u |
| 2024-12 | 16.5% | 60.5% | 60 | 1.20u |
| 2025-01 | 16.5% | 60.5% | 58 | 1.18u |
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